The violent rebirth of a long lasting conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan

On this Tuesday 19th of September, Azeri troops stationed around the region of Nagorno-Karabakh started a military operation on this territory inhabited by around 120 000 ethnic Armenias. This act translates centuries of tension between the two neighboring territories of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

User:Aivazovsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

On Tuesday the 19th of September, the Azeri Prime Minister Asadov announced the deployment of his troops in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh under the label of “anti-terrorist operations”. This territory recognised by the international community as part of Azerbaijan hosts a majority of ethnic Armenians and has been a subject of dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan for several decades. This conflict is particularly concerning for humanitarian grounds as the thousands of Azeri troops stationed around the enclaved region form a situation of siege thus preventing the delivery of food, medicine and electricity supplied to the Armenian majority residing there.

Moreover tensions are rising within Armenia itself where protests break out, as the Prime Minister Nikos Pashinyan is criticized for giving up part of Armenia without initiating a military intervention. The military conflict is factually unbalanced as Azerbaijan is a larger country with a mightier economy and a military budget five times greater than Armenia’s. Additionally, Armenia’s usual security partner, Russia, doesn’t seem to have the military means nor the political will to intervene in the conflict for its troops are mobilized in the conflict with Ukraine.

In order to understand the roots of this conflict, it is essential to look back at its historical context. In the 18th century, the region was already populated by both Armenians and Azeris and was thus essential to both peoples. In the course of the 19th century, the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, also called Artsakh in Armenian, was ruled by the Russian Empire until 1915. Then both Armenia and Azerbaijan were established as separate states which initiated the battle over the region as borders were drawn.

In 1917, the USSR employed itself to make union republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan under the united Transcaucasian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. Then the Nagorno-Karabakh was declared a semi independent region within the Azeri Republic despite the Armenian ethnic majority. The special status was however remotely respected as the region had tight connections with the Armenian Republic. The war started de facto when the USSR lost its grip on its Republics during the implementation of the Glasnost (opening) policy in the late 1980s for it was followed by the independence of both states thus turning the political tension into an interstate war.

In 1988, the ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh organized a referendum to join Armenia which resulted in the revival of the conflict and waves of protests on both sides of the border. The collapse of the USSR led to about 20 000 civilian deaths and 1 million migrations between both territories due to the violent altercations in the disputed region.

In 1994, both countries signed a ceasefire and the military positions at the end of the conflict marked the new borders including Armenian occupations in the Nagorno-Karabakh although it was never recognised internationally as part of Armenia. This rupture in the conflict was accompanied by the migration of Azeri minorities which refused to live under Armenian rule. Moreover, Armenia renamed some Azeri towns and repopulated them with ethnic Armenians. In the meantime, Azerbaijan was increasing its military budget preparing for a renewed conflict. Ever since the ceasefire, there has been a military presence in the region from both countries, creating a constant visible tension.

In 2020, Azerbaijan launched an attack on the Armenians still present in the region. The unbalanced military combat led to a rapid overtaking of Armenian occupation territories by the Azeri army. The stronger Azeri military was completed by weapons and technologies such as drones provided by Turkey. The conflict ended in November 2020 with the surrender of Armenia and the Azeris getting control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. However the end of this conflict didn’t mark the end of the war as no peace agreement was signed and the Armenian population endured forced migration and rose against the governments in the form of protests.

This conflict is also inserted in a larger geopolitical context which seems worth mentioning. In a similar manner as what can be seen in other conflicts taking place in the region, there has been attempts to intervene and, or solve the conflict from third party countries.

First, Russia tried to lead an international pacification group in 1992, together with France and the USA named the “OSCE Minsk Group” which was refused by both belligerent countries. Moreover, Russia has sent soldiers under the name of peacekeepers in the disputed region since the 2020 cease fire.

Turkey has also gained significant importance in the conflict throughout the years. It has supported Azerbaijan as they share strong ethnic roots and a similar language. This involvement can also be analyzed as another attempt of Turkey to push against Russia similarly to the situation in Syria and Iran for instance. Turkey has also obtained the construction of a road to Azerbaijan crossing Armenian territory for more efficient trade and has sent peacekeepers on the conflicted terrain.

Also, the EU has organized a mediation in May 2023 where the Armenian Prime Minister agreed to give up Nagorno-Karabakh. However the project failed as Azerbaijan refused to cooperate.

These examples show a diplomatic failure from Turkey and the EU as the conflict is still taking place today. Moreover it casts light on Russia as an unreliable security partner which could lead other partner countries of Russia to question the viability of their security agreement. Now, Armenia looks out for other security insurances such as the US to which they offered joined military exercises.

This could be the beginning of a new balance between the US-Russia rivalry though the so-called “West” has been reluctant to support Armenia due to the nature of its claims. Indeed, recognising the Armenian majorities on a legally foreign territory (Azerbaijan) would contradict the support provided to Ukraine fighting to keep its Eastern regions hosting Russian majorities.

References

Location Nagorno-Karabakh2.png [https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Location_Nagorno-Karabakh2.png] by User:Aivazovsky, 1 May 2006. Public Domain.