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After eight years of government by Law and Justice (PiS), the Polish electorate has voted for the three main opposition parties. Technically, the most-voted party is still from the outgoing government, but it needs the political and numerical support of near-minded parties to reach the majority. However, the Civil Coalition, the Third Way, and the Left have the numbers to create a coalition government, with a total of 248 seats.
The Nationalist and Eurosceptic influence of Jarosław Kaczyński in the parliament is over, after years of gradual recession in social and cultural rights, like the severe restriction of abortion of the legal status of 2021 and on media communication freedom. 73% was the percentage of turnouts on the ballot, one of the highest in the last decades, that was needed to change the democratic course.
Nevertheless, the game still needs to be played. The government is not yet formed and the Polish president Andrzej Duda, who is from the Law and Justice Party, still has to select the right person for the job. Many fingers point at Donald Tusk from Civil Coalition for the duty. He appeared likely to return to his past role as Polish prime minister, a job he held from 2007 to 2014.
The European institutions, in the meantime, have breathed a sigh of relief. They were worried about the authoritative and pro-EU opposition wave of the last years and they are now reassured by the figure of Donald Tusk back under the spotlights. In fact, he is an inside man, who served as the European Council president from 2014 to 2019.
Now the ball passes to Andrzej Duda, who could still indicate to form the new government to someone from his party. The desperate attempt to keep Law and Justice in power would not end well, and in the best scenario would only delay the formation of a government in accordance with the result of the elections.
The expectations of the not-formed government are already high, not only for the political environment inside the country, but also for the relation with the EU. An overwhelmingly strong and unwavering 83% majority would back their country's EU membership in a referendum, significantly surpassing the EU27 average of 72%. In summary, for the citizens of Poland, the idea of a 'Polexit' was never seriously considered.
References
Cienski, J. (2023, October 17). Poland election results: Opposition secures win, final count shows. Politico. eu.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-election-results-opposition-donald-tusk-wins-final-count-civic-platform-pis/
Poland election: Tusk's opposition eyes power after pivotal vote. (2023, October 17). BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67123584
Schilgen, H., & Jungbluth, C. (2021, October 21). Poland, Polish citizens and the EU. Global & European Dynamics
https://globaleurope.eu/europes-future/poland-polish-citizens-and-the-eu/
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